Paint is used in countless construction, renovation and home improvement projects. Whether it's relied on to give a room a fresh look, update tired kitchen cabinets or protect a building's exterior, paint plays a critical role in both the aesthetic and functional aspects of homes.
The home improvement products market looks to be in a stable position at the start of 2026, with solid growth marking the final quarter of 2025. Homeowners continue to show signs of concerns surrounding finances, inflation, and the economy in general, but a majority of planned to spend the same amount on home improvement during the upcoming year as they had in the past 12 months, according to the Home Improvement Research Institute’s Quarterly Homeowner Project Activity Tracker for Q4 2025. And while growth in the paint and coatings industry looks limited in the near future, the forecast is more optimistic through 2030.
Additionally, optimism about market growth strengthened among contractors, who are heavily relied on for both interior and exterior painting projects, in the fourth quarter of 2025, according to HIRI’s Contractor Business Sentiment Tracker. Approximately 60% of contractors are expecting the home improvement market to grow in the next 12 months, up from 53% in Q3. It’s now up to professionals in the paint and coatings industry to determine the best approach for how to respond to changing market conditions.
How is the Paint Industry Performing?
The paint industry had a mixed experience in 2025, based on data in HIRI’s U.S. Home Improvement Market Forecast for March 2026. The consumer market for both paint and preservatives and paint sundries experienced a negative compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -2.1% and -4%, respectively. However, the professional market for paint and preservatives grew 6.3%, amounting to roughly $14.6 billion, and the professional market for paint sundries grew about 7.9% to $3.525 billion.
Among homeowners who spent at least $5,000 on a home improvement project in the past 12 months, the median spend on exterior paints and stains was $8,000 and the average spend was just under $12,000, according to HIRI’s 2025 Project Decision Study, which focused on mid- to large-sized home improvement projects. In general, exterior painting is a way for homeowners to spruce up their home in a more cost-effective way, with paint projects revealing more polarized, discretionary spending patterns. The median spend of an interior painting job is $12,000 and the average spend is just under $15,000. About three-fourths of homeowners who do interior painting complete some other types of home improvement activities as well, demonstrating that painting usually anchors more modest but widespread refreshes.
Based on research from HIRI’s 2025 Contractor Product Purchase Incidence Report, interior paint has a high purchase incidence, with 72% of professionals reporting that they purchased a product in this category on behalf of themselves or a customer in 2024. Interior paint products include things like:
- Paint brushes, rollers, pans and pads
- Interior paint
- Primer
- Paint scrapers and putty knives
- Spackling and stain
Paint and stain also dominate exterior purchases, with 81% of contractors making a purchase in this category in 2024. Exterior paint products include:
- Exterior paint
- Exterior waterproofing/wood
- Preservative/sealant
- Stain
- Exterior wood cleaners/strippers
Looking ahead to the remainder of 2026, demand is expected to stay somewhat tempered, with only slight growth in the paint market. Here is a look at near-future forecasts for the professional and consumer categories:
HIRI Interior and Exterior Paint Market Forecasts for 2026
Professional Market Forecast
- Paint & preservatives: $14.643 billion (0.2% growth)
- Paint sundries: $3.559 billion (1% growth)
Consumer Market Forecast
- Paint & preservatives: $13.38 (+0.8% growth)
- Paint sundries: $8.508 (+0.8% growth)
HIRI Interior and Exterior Paint Market Forecasts Through 2030
Based on data from HIRI’s U.S. Home Improvement Products Market Forecast for March 2026, demand for paint among consumers will pick up and growth will be more substantial among both professionals and DIY homeowners through the end of 2030.
Professional Market Forecast
- Paint & preservatives: $17.3 billion (+4.3% growth between 2026-2030)
- Paint sundries: $4.1 billion (+3.6% growth between 2026-2030)
Consumer Market Forecast
- Paint & preservatives: $15.8 billion (+4.2% growth between 2026-2030)
- Paint sundries: $10.938 billion (+3.6% growth between 2026-2030)
The low growth rate in the paint-related categories could be due to recessionary pressures that homeowners are facing. Many homeowners are deferring funds to other priorities because of financial constraints, which impact their repair and remodeling spending decisions. They will continue investing in repairs on an as-needed basis and defer major projects and aesthetic that aren't necessities.
However, manufacturers and retailers can also rely on the widespread appeal and use of paint and related products in a wide variety of home improvement activities, from new construction to small cosmetic upgrades and major remodels. Homeowners, or the contractors working on their project, will have continued demand for products in these categories, and brands can utilize specific data to capitalize on this demand and capture a greater share of the market.
Purchase Behaviors and Project Decision-Making Among DIYers
There are several forces that drive customers to participate in painting projects and motivators impacting their purchasing decisions. HIRI's 2025 Project Decision Study (which includes reports for both Mid-to-Large Exterior Projects and Mid-to-Large Interior Finishing Projects) sheds light on key insights that manufacturers and retailers can utilize for strategic planning.
Why and When Do Homeowners Take on a Painting Project?
Motivations for Painting Projects
Homeowners report the following as the top reasons for undertaking an exterior painting project:
- Enhancing aesthetics and updating style
- Increasing home value
- Reducing maintenance
Interior painting projects cluster predominantly around living spaces, bedrooms, and dining rooms, followed by kitchen and bathrooms. These activities are largely driven by:
- Improving aesthetic and style
- Enhancing comfort and livability
- Maintaining and repairing interior spaces
Sustainability considerations also weigh more heavily in prompting painting activities than they do for most other interior projects.
Seasonality Impact on Painting Projects
Both interior and exterior painting projects may be triggered by perceptions that the time has come for a repair or update. However, because exterior painting is conducted outdoors, the timing of seasons and weather plays an above-average role in driving demand for exterior painting projects.
Regarding exterior painting projects, survey respondents report that:
- Consideration of an exterior painting project typically occurs in the months of January, March, May, August or September (54%).
- The go-ahead decision for an exterior painting project is usually made between March and May (48%), with another peak in October (13%).
- 55% of exterior painting projects are started May through August, and 59% are completed during that time period (warmer weather provides an impetus for these projects in much of the country).
Similarly, interior painting projects also advance more quickly once underway. Interior painting project timelines, however, are a bit varied:
- The idea to do interior painting peaks in February (24%) and June (20%).
- A majority of project decisions are made in February, March, April, and August (54%).
- 30% of interior painting projects start in March, followed by 18% in May, and 24% of projects are completed in April, followed by 24% in November and December.
Utilizing Pros for Paint Projects
Exterior envelope projects are predominantly contractor led—and that includes painting activities. In terms of project completion methods for exterior painting or staining projects:
- 10% are completed in a DIY manner, or with help from friends and family
- 3% are a combination of DIY/contractor support
- 88% are done with the help of a contractor
Hiring pros for exterior paint jobs is driven primarily by:
- Work quality
- Ease and convenience
- Quicker project completion
- Safety considerations
Interior paint projects follow similar patterns, as our research reveals:
- 9% are completed in a DIY manner, or with help from friends and family
- 9% are a combination of DIY/contractor support
- 82% are done with the help of a contractor
For these projects, homeowners generally hire pros for:
- Technical expertise
- Work quality
- Guaranteed workmanship
Where Do Consumer Shop for Paint Supplies?
HIRI research indicates that there is something satisfying about perusing store aisles for the perfect paint swatch, which is why in-store shopping is still the preferred method for both industry professionals and consumers, with big-box stores capturing the largest share of sales.
About two-thirds of exterior envelope supplies and materials (including paints and stains) and about three-fourths of interior finishing products (including paints, preservatives, and sundries) are purchased from big-box retailers. Specialty suppliers and building material dealers are also popular sources for exterior project products, while specialty suppliers, online-only retailers, local hardware stores and mass retailers are used for interior finishing products and materials.
When researching and planning painting projects, customers are primarily looking for:
- Pricing information
- Project cost estimates and budgeting tools
- Local service providers and contractors
- Timeline and scheduling advice
- Ideas and inspiration
- Reviews and ratings
Where Do Contractors Shop for Paint Supplies?
Here is a breakdown of where pros typically shop for paint supplies:
- Big-box stores (67% for interior paints and 62% for exterior paint and stain)
- Local hardware store (9% for interior paints and 12% for exterior paint and stain)
- Specialty suppliers (7% for interior paints and 6% for exterior paint and stain)
- Direct from manufacturer (4% for interior paints and 5% for exterior paint and stain)
- Local building material store (4% for interior paints and 5% for exterior paint and stain)
- Mass retailer (4% for interior paints and 4% for exterior paint and stain)
How Paint and Coatings Manufacturers Can Respond to Current Trends
Manufacturers should take advantage of trends in paint project decision-making to connect with key audiences at the right time and enable channel distribution partners to better service the end customer.
Here are some ways to connect with audiences who are considering an interior or exterior painting project:
Continue Use of Social Media
Brands can use social media platforms such as YouTube, Facebook, Instagram and Twitter to engage with consumers and showcase projects first, and products second. Afterall, among DIYers who used social media for research, 83% used YouTube and 53% used Facebook in the fourth quarter of 2025. This is especially relevant for painting supplies and materials, as homeowners are often searching for ideas and inspiration, as well as checking out reviews.
Invest in Influencer Marketing
Consider collaborating with influencers in the home improvement and design spaces to showcase your paint brands and reach new audiences. Influencer marketing can be especially effective in reaching DIYers and home improvement enthusiasts, and drive demand during the considerations stage of the buyer's journey.
Improve In-store Experiences
Manufacturers can create a unique and engaging in-store experience for consumers through the use of interactive displays, product demonstrations and hands-on workshops. Develop sales enablement materials for your channel partners to improve their ability to aid a shopper in choosing the right product (of your brand) during their purchase process. Good end to end shopping experiences help build brand loyalty and establish a connection with customers.
Innovate Product Samples
Product samples provide another type of in-store experience manufacturers can offer. Allowing consumers to try your products and see the results for themselves can help build trust and encourage them to choose your products over competitors. Consider ways to increase sampling of your paint and paint sundries. By connecting with consumers in these ways, brands in the paint industry can establish a strong relationship with target audiences, build brand awareness and credibility, and drive sales.
Using Research to Gain Important Insights into the Paint Industry
For full access to data from HIRI's report, including the raw data files your analysts need to perform their own tabulations, join HIRI as a member today. Whether launching a product, refining marketing, or planning growth, HIRI keeps you ahead of the curve.
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